If you were scouring the standings and the schedules, I have good news for you: The league helpfully provided the scenarios in a press release this evening.
Marshall wins the East division by beating Charlotte this weekend at home (CBSSN 5:30pm central). They own the tie-breaker (head-to-head) with FAU.
FAU wins the East with a win over USM (Thursday CBSSN 5:30pm central) and a Charlotte win over Marshall.
Charlotte cannot win the East because they lose on tie-breakers in a three-way tie. That loss to WKU was huge.
In case you are curious, the league laid out the three-way tiebreaker thusly:
If Charlotte beats Marshall and Southern Miss beats Florida Atlantic then Marshall and Florida Atlantic each would be 4-2 and Charlotte would be 3-2. The three schools would be considered tied.
* Tiebreaker No. 1: They would all be1-1 in head-to-head games amongst each other.
* Tiebreaker No. 2: *They did not play the same number of division games, as Marshall and Florida Atlantic would be 3-1 and Charlotte would be 1-2. *Tiebreaker No. 3: *When comparing records vs. common divisional opponents in descending order you start with games vs. WKU (4-3): Marshall and Florida Atlantic each defeated WKU and Charlotte lost to WKU. Charlotte is eliminated and you revert back to head-to-head between Marshall and Florida Atlantic. Marshall won the head-to-head and would be East Division Champion.
UAB wins the West with a win over Rice (Saturday, ESPN3 12 noon central). UAB would be 3-1 and have a .750 win percentage. UTSA has a .714 percentage.
UTSA wins the West with a Rice win over UAB. UTSA owns the head-to-head tiebreaker vs Tech.
LaTech cannot win the West because of the tie-breaker with UTSA. That blown lead was huge.
Who Hosts The Championship Game?
If it is Marshall (5-1) and UAB (3-1) — Marshall would host because of “better win percentage and +2 wins”
If it is Marshall (5-1) and UTSA (5-2) — Marshall would host because of better win percentage.
If it is Marshall (4-2) and UAB (3-1) — UAB would host with a better win percentage
If it is Marshall (4-2) and UTSA (5-2) — Determined by CFP or highest computer ranking.
If it is FAU (5-1) and UAB (3-1) — FAU would host with better percentage and +2 wins
If it is FAU (5-1) and UTSA (5-2) — FAU would host with better win percentage.